Since the inception of the modern Olympic Games in 1896, the Summer Games have been canceled or postponed four times: in 1918, 1940, and 1944 due to world wars, and in 2020 because of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. As an avid sports fan and a professor of global health with a background in pandemic preparedness, I have been closely following the COVID-19 situation as it plays out in countries around the world to try to determine what impact it might have on the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics rescheduled for this summer.
The State of the Global Pandemic
As I write, we are all familiar with the dire pandemic situation in India, but we should also recognize that many other countries in Asia are experiencing devastating surges too. This includes countries that had substantial success in controlling the outbreak until now. The current 7-day rolling average number of cases in Nepal is more than what it has been at any previous time since the pandemic began. The incidence curves for Thailand and even Taiwan are hardly curves at all -- for the past few weeks they more resemble upwardly pointing vertical lines. Here is a picture of for the month of May:
A state of emergency has been declared in Japan -- where is fully vaccinated -- and will remain in effect for nine prefectures, including Tokyo, until at least the end of this month. South America is also seeing increases, largely driven by a resurgence of transmission in Brazil, and many fear that the African continent is next.
Planning for the Tokyo Games
On June 23, 2020 (Olympic Day), the International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced a with the World Health Organization (WHO) and spoke of "the collective effort and global collaboration needed to stay healthy and reduce the spread and impact of COVID-19." Still, despite the risk that holding the Games this summer poses in terms of transmission within and among the national delegations, to spectators from Tokyo and other parts of Japan, and to home countries when the delegations return, the IOC remains steadfast in its intention to hold the Games in July and August. (Only the IOC can make the decision to cancel the Games. Contractually, neither the Japanese Olympic Committee nor the Tokyo Government has this power).
More than 11,000 athletes are scheduled to compete in 33 sports. There will be no international spectators and it is not yet clear that people living in Japan (where polls show that more than opposes holding the Games and the Tokyo Medical Practitioners Association has for their cancellation) will be allowed to attend.
A year ago, when postponement of the Games was being discussed, numerous public health officials offered opinions and suggestions as to how the IOC might create a risk-controlled environment should the Games proceed, although almost all felt that they should not. In addition to barring spectators, their recommendations included foregoing pageantry such as the opening and closing ceremonies; not permitting the party-like atmosphere that frequently characterizes the Olympic Village, where athletes and others from around the world socialize; and perhaps dropping indoor and team sports where transmission of the virus is more likely. Other experts made suggestions to adopt a "pod-like" approach as other sports have done in the U.S. and Europe this winter and spring, requiring teams to stay together and to have little, if any, interaction with others outside of the sporting events themselves. Whichever, if any, of these measures are taken, the Games will bear little resemblance to the global celebration we have been accustomed to seeing every four years.
Although COVID-19 continues to take the around the world on a daily basis, there have been positive developments over the past year. First and foremost is the availability of a highly effective vaccine. Countries that have achieved relatively high rates of vaccination have experienced sizeable decreases in incidence, hospitalization, and mortality, and have moved closer to re-opening. they will donate their mRNA vaccine for all athletes and their accompanying delegations attending the Games in time for them to have received their second dose by their arrival in Tokyo. Surprisingly, the IOC, while encouraging national Olympic officials to try to have all athletes vaccinated (but not to "jump the queue" in their home countries, most of which do not have enough vaccine for health workers, the elderly, and other high-risk groups), is not making vaccination mandatory for competitors or others. This leaves me wondering, why are the organizers of the Games not taking this risk-reducing step? What does the IOC's partner, the WHO, think about this decision?
To Cancel or Not to Cancel?
Canceling the games at this late date will certainly cause hardship for some. A lot of money has been spent to enable Tokyo to host the Games in style. And the loss of revenue, much of which is distributed to national Olympic Committees, will undoubtedly have a major impact on the Olympic movement for years to come. I feel badly for the athletes themselves, for whom participating in the Olympic Games is, for many, the pinnacle of their careers in sport and for whom the opportunity will not come again. But for so many people who have lost so much during the course of this pandemic, the Olympic Games are insignificant. Worse, they can be seen as an event held for the privileged for the benefit of a few, and as a reminder of how much the world continues to suffer from the pandemic. For many, this does not seem to be the time for celebrating athletic achievement.
In describing the post-war, post-pandemic Summer Olympics of 1920, the IOC itself recently , "As the entire world is fighting the devastating COVID-19 pandemic, the Olympic Games...live on as a symbol of post-crisis solidarity and recovery." The problem for the scheduled 2021 Games is that the world is in no sense "post-crisis." The pandemic is still raging and the risk of the Games fueling transmission is very real. The idea of holding the Games is unpopular both in the host country and among public health experts around the world. Rather than becoming a symbol of global unity and solidarity, the Olympics this summer are more likely to shine a light on continued suffering and unconscionable inequity.
Let the Games be canceled.
, is a professor emeritus of global health at George Washington University's Milken Institute School of Public Health, and president of .